Predictive model for survival in patients with gastric cancer
Keywords:
Gastric Cancer, Survival, Missing Value, Predictive Model, MashhadAbstract
Background and aim: Gastric cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in the world. Characterized by poor prognosis, it is a frequent cause of cancer in Iran. The aim of the study was to design a predictive model of survival time for patients suffering from gastric cancer. Methods: This was a historical cohort conducted between 2011 and 2016. Study population were 277 patients suffering from gastric cancer. Data were gathered from the Iranian Cancer Registry and the laboratory of Emam Reza Hospital in Mashhad, Iran. Patients or their relatives underwent interviews where it was needed. Missing values were imputed by data mining techniques. Fifteen factors were analyzed. Survival was addressed as a dependent variable. Then, the predictive model was designed by combining both genetic algorithm and logistic regression. Matlab 2014 software was used to combine them. Results: Of the 277 patients, only survival of 80 patients was available whose data were used for designing the predictive model. Mean ± SD of missing values for each patient was 4.43±1.41 combined predictive model achieved 72.57% accuracy. Sex, birth year, age at diagnosis time, age at diagnosis time of patients’ family, family history of gastric cancer, and family history of other gastrointestinal cancers were six parameters associated with patient survival. Conclusion: The study revealed that imputing missing values by data mining techniques have a good accuracy. And it also revealed six parameters extracted by genetic algorithm effect on the survival of patients with gastric cancer. Our combined predictive model, with a good accuracy, is appropriate to forecast the survival of patients suffering from Gastric cancer. So, we suggest policy makers and specialists to apply it for prediction of patients’ survival.
References
Ghadimi MR, Mahmoodi M, Mohammad K, Zeraati H, Hosseini M, Sheikh Fathollahi M. Comparison of
Survival analysis of Gastrointestinal Cancer patients using parametric and Cox models. sjsph. 2010; 8(2): 1–
Karimi P, Islami F, Anandasabapathy S, Freedman ND, Kamangar F. Gastric cancer: descriptive
epidemiology, risk factors, screening, and prevention. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014; 23(5): 700–
doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-13-1057. PMID: 24618998, PMCID: PMC4019373.
Baeradeh N, Lotfi M, Fallahzadeh H, Kargar S, Salman Roghani H. Survival rate of patients with stomach
cancer and its effective factors in Yazd Province. J Community Health Res. 2015; 3:278-87.
Malekzadeh R, Derakhshan MH, Malekzadeh Z. Gastric cancer in Iran: epidemiology and risk factors. Arch
Iran Med. 2009; 12(6): 576–83. PMID: 19877751.
Soleimani A, Hassanzadeh J, Motlagh AG, Tabatabaee H, Partovipour E, Keshavarzi S, et al. Spatial analysis
of common gastrointestinal tract cancers in counties of Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2015; 16: 4025–9. doi:
7314/APJCP.2015.16.9.4025. PMID: 25987080.
Naghavi M. Iranian annual of national death registration report. Tehran Minist Health Med Educ. 2005.
Akbari ME, Abachizadeh K, Tabatabaei SM, Ghanbari Motlagh A, Majd Jabari Z, Khaiamzadeh M, et al.
Cancer in Iran. 1st ed. Qom: Darolfekr Publications; 2008.
Tehran Iran: Cancer Office, Center for Disease Control, Deputy for Health, Ministry of Health and Medical
Education; 2002. Iranian Annual of Cancer Registration 2001-2002.
Sadighi S, Raafat J, Mohagheghi MA, Meemary F. Gastric carcinoma: 5 year experience of a single institute.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2005; 6(2): 195–6. PMID: 16101332.
Zeraati H, Mahmoudi M, Kazemnejad A, Mohammed K. Postoperative life expectancy in gastric cancer
patients and its associated factors. Saudi Med J. 2005; 26(8): 1203–7. PMID: 16127513.
Samadi F, Babaei M, Yazdanbod A, Fallah M, Nouraie M, Nasrollahzadeh D, et al. Survival rate of gastric
and esophageal cancers in Ardabil province, North-West of Iran. Arch Iran Med. 2007; 10(1): 32–7. doi:
/AIM.009. PMID: 17198451.
Eskandar H, Hossein SS, Rahim M, Jalal H, Mehrdad A, Rajabi T. Clinical profile of gastric cancer in
Khuzestan, southwest of Iran. World J Gastroenterol. 2006; 12(30): 4832–5. PMID: 16937464, PMCID:
PMC4087616.
Movahedi M, Afsharfard A, Moradi A, Moadeli AN, Khoshnevis J, Fattahi F, et al. Survival rate of gastric
cancer in Iran. J Res Med Sci. 2009; 14(6): 367–73. PMID: 21772910, PMCID: PMC3129080.
Akhondi-Meybodi M, Ghane M, Akhondi-Meybodi S, Dashti G. Five-year Survival Rate for Gastric Cancer
in Yazd Province, Central Iran, from 2001 to 2008. Middle East J Dig Dis. 2017; 9(1): 39. doi:
15171/mejdd.2016.50. PMID: 28316765, PMCID: PMC5308133.
Baghestani AR, Hajizadeh E, Fatemi SR. Bayesian analysis for survival of patients with gastric cancer in
Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2009; 10(5): 823–6. PMID: 20104972.
Ganji A, Malekzadeh F, Safavi M, Nassri-Moghaddam S, Nourie M, Merat S, et al. Digestive and liver
disease statistics in Iran. Middle East J Dig Dis. 2009; 1(2): 56–62.
Golabpour A, Etminani K, Doosti H, Heidarian Miri H, Ghanbari R. Providing an imputation algorithm for
missing values of longitudinal data using Cuckoo Search algorithm: A case study on cervical dystonia.
Electron Physician. 2017; 9(6): 4648-54. doi: 10.19082/4648.
Witten IH, Frank E, Hall MA. Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, Third
Edition. Burlington, MA: Morgan Kaufmann; 2011.
Yang D, Hendifar A, Lenz C, Togawa K, Lenz F, Lurje G, et al. Survival of metastatic gastric cancer:
Significance of age, sex and race/ethnicity. J Gastrointest Oncol. 2011; 2(2): 77–84. doi: 10.3978/j.issn.2078- 6891.2010.025. PMID: 22811834, PMCID: PMC3397601.
Zeraati H, Amiri Z. Estimating postoperative survival of gastric cancer patients and factors affecting it in
Iran: Based on a TNM-7 Staging System. Acta Med Iran. 2016; 54(2): 114–8. PMID: 26997598.
De Angelis R, Sant M, Coleman MP, Francisci S, Baili P, Pierannunzio D, et al. Cancer survival in Europe
-2007 by country and age: results of EUROCARE--5-a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2014;
(1): 23–34. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(13)70546-1. PMID: 24314615.
Ferro A, Peleteiro B, Malvezzi M, Bosetti C, Bertuccio P, Levi F, et al. Worldwide trends in gastric cancer
mortality (1980–2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype. Eur J Cancer. 2014; 50(7): 1330–
doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2014.01.029. PMID: 24650579.
Rugge M, Fassan M, Graham DY. Epidemiology of gastric cancer. In: Gastric Cancer. Springer. 2015: 23–
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-15826-6_2.
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 KNOWLEDGE KINGDOM PUBLISHING
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
