Approaches in Health Human Resource Forecasting
A Roadmap for Improvement
Keywords:
Forecasting approach, Predict, Demand, Supply, Health human resourcesAbstract
Introduction: Forecasting the demand and supply of health manpower in an accurate manner makes appropriate planning possible. The aim of this paper was to review approaches and methods for health manpower forecasting and consequently propose the features that improve the effectiveness of this important process of health manpower planning.
Methods: A literature review was conducted for studies published in English from 1990-2014 using Pub Med, Science Direct, Pro Quest, and Google Scholar databases. Review articles, qualitative studies, retrospective and prospective studies describing or applying various types of forecasting approaches and methods in health manpower forecasting were included in the review. The authors designed an extraction data sheet based on study questions to collect data on studies’ references, designs, and types of forecasting approaches, whether discussed or applied, with their strengths and weaknesses
Results: Forty studies were included in the review. As a result, two main categories of approaches (conceptual and analytical) for health manpower forecasting were identified. Each approach had several strengths and weaknesses. As a whole, most of them were faced with some challenges, such as being static and unable to capture dynamic variables in manpower forecasting and causal relationships. They also lacked the capacity to benefit from scenario making to assist policy makers in effective decision making.
Conclusions: An effective forecasting approach is supposed to resolve all the deficits that exist in current approaches and meet the key features found in the literature in order to develop an open system and a dynamic and comprehensive method necessary for today complex health care systems.
References
Roberfroid D, Stordeur S, Camberlin C, Van de Voorde C, Vrijens F, Leonard C. Physician workforce
supply in Belgium: Current situation and challenges. Health Services Research (HSR). Brussels: Belgian
Health Care Knowledge Centre (KCE); 2008. KCE reports C (D/2006/10.273/).
Birch S. Health human resource planning for the new millennium: inputs in the production of health,
illness, and recovery in populations. Can J Nursing Res. 2002; 33: 109-14. PMID: 11998188.
Stokker JH, Gillian H. The right person, in the right job, with the right skills, at the right time. A workforce
planning model that goes beyond metrics. Library Manag. 2009; 30(8): 561-71. doi:
1108/01435120911006520.
Anderson GF, Han KC, Miller RH, Johns ME. A comparison of three methods for estimating the
requirements for medical specialists: the case of otolaryngologists. Health Serv Res. 1997; 32: 139-53.
PMID: 9180613, PMCID: PMC1070178.
Centre CLaB. Canada’s Physician Workforce: Occupational Human Resources Data Assessment and Trend
Analysis Executive Summary. Ottawa, Canada: Canadian Policy Research Networks; 2000. 6) Chan B. From perceived surplus to perceived shortage: what happened to Canada’s physician workforce in
the 1990’s? Ottawa, Ontario: Canadian Institute for Health Information; 2002.
Dreesch N, Dolea C, Dal Poz MR, Goubarev A, Adams O, Aregawi M. An approach to estimating human
resource requirements to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Health Policy Plan. 2005; 20: 267- 76. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czi036.
Dussault GB, J. Sermeus, W. Padaiga, Z. Assessing future health workforce needs-Investing in Europe’s
health workforce of tomorrow: Scope for innovation and collaboration. Geneva: European Observatory on
Health Systems and Policies; 2010
Gavel P. Medical workforce planning in Australia: process, methodology and technical issues. Cah Sociol
Demogr Med. 2004; 44(1): 7-42. PMID: 15146657.
Goodman DC, Fisher ES, Bubolz TA, Mohr JE, Poage JF, Wennberg JE. Benchmarking the US physician
workforce. An alternative to needs-based or demand-based planning. JAMA. 1996; 276(22): 1811-7. doi:
1001/jama.1996.03540220035027. PMID: 8946901.
Katz A, Bogdanovic B, Ekuma O, Soodeen RA, Chateau D, Burnett C. Physician resource projection
models. Manitoba: Manitoba center for health policy, Department of community health sciences, Faculty of
medicine, University of Manitoba; 2009.
Keet MP, Henley LD, Power HM, Heese HV. Medical manpower-South African situation models for
planning and recommendations. S Afr Med J. 1990; 78(10): 591-7. PMID: 2247793.
Lavis JN, Birch S. The answer is ..., now what was the question? Applying alternative approaches to
estimating nurse requirements. Can J Nurs Adm. 1997; 10(1): 24-44. PMID: 9086965.
Lee PP, Jackson CA, Relles DA. Demand-based assessment of workforce requirements for orthopedic
services. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 1998; 80(3): 313-26. PMID: 9531197.
Markham B, Birch S. Back to the future: A framework for estimating health care human resource
requirements. Can J Nurs Adm. 1997; 10(1): 7-23. PMID: 9086964.
Lurie JD, Goodman DC, Wennberg JE. Benchmarking future generalist workforce. Eff Clin Pract. 2002;
(2): 58-66. PMID: 11990213.
Murphy GT, O’ Brien-Pallas L. How Do Health Human Resources Policies and Practices Inhibit Change?
A Plan for the Future. Canada: Commission on the future of Health Care in Canada; 2002.
O’Brien-Pallas L, Baumann A, Birch S, Murphy GT. Health human resource planning in home care: How
to approach it--That is the question. Healthc Pap. 2000; 1(4): 53-9. doi: 10.12927/hcpap..17351. PMID:
O’Brien-Pallas L, Baumann A, Donner G, Lochhass GJ, Luba M, Lakats L, et al. Health human resources:
An analysis of forecasting models. Ontario, Canada: Canadian Nurses Association; 1998.
Organization. WH. Models and Tools for Health Workforce Planning and Projections. Geneva: Human
Resources for Health Observer, World Health Organization; 2010.
Rizza RA, Vigersky RA, Rodbard HW, Ladenson PW, Young WF, Surks MI, et al. A model to determine
workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2003; 88(5):
-87. doi: 10.1210/jc.2002-021288. PMID: 12727941.
Roberfroid D, Leonard C, Stordeur S. Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball. Hum
Resour Health. 2009; 7(10). doi: 10.1186/1478-4491-7-10. PMID: 19216772.
Roos NP, Bradley JE, Fransoo R, Shanahan M. How many physicians does Canada need to care for our
aging population? CMAJ. 1998; 158(10): 1275-84. PMID: 9614820, PMCID: PMC1229321.
Roos NP, Fransoo R, Bogdanovic B, Carriere KC, Frohlich N, Friesen D, et al. Needs based planning for
generalist physicians. Med Care. 1999; 37(6): 206-28. doi: 10.1097/00005650-199906001-00017. PMID:
Salsberg E. California Physician Workforce: supply and demand through 2015. New York: The center for
health workforce studies, University of Albany, State University of New york; 2004.
Scott A, Sivey P, Joyce C, Schofield D, Davies Ph. Alternative approaches to health workforce planning.
Australia: School of Population Health, National Health Workforce Taskforce, University of Queensland;
Joyce CM, Mc Neil J, Stoelwinder JU. Time for a new approach to medical workforce planning. Med J
Aust. 2004; 180: 343-6. PMID: 15059057.
Solutions. DCfH. Better health care worker demand projections: A twenty first century approach:
Bipartisan Policy Center; 2013.
Ono T, Lafortune G, Schoenstein M. Health Workforce Planning in OECD Countries: A Review of 26
Projection Models from 18 Countries; 2013. Report No.: 62. doi: 10.1787/18152015.
Birch S, Kephart G, Murphy GT, O'Brien-Pallas L, Alder R, MacKenzie A. Health human resources
planning and the production of health: Development of an analytical framework for needs-based health
human resources planning. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2009; 15(6 Suppl): S56-61. doi:
1097/PHH.0b013e3181b1ec0e. PMID: 19829233.
Curson J, editor. Physician workforce planning: what have we learned? Lessons for planning medical
school capacity and IMG policies. 7th International Medical Workforce Conference; 2003 Sep 11-14; UK.
Oxford.
Dill J, Salsberg E. The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections through 2025:
Association of American Medical Colleges, Center for Workforce Studies; 2008 Contract No: Document
Number.
Greenberg L, Cultice JM. Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: the Health Resources
and Services Administration's physician requirements model. Health Serv Res. 1997; 31: 723-37. PMCID:
PMC1070155.
Aburawi I, Hafeez K. Managing dynamics of human resource and knowledge management in organizations
through system dynamics modeling. Int J Sci Tech Automatic Control Eng. 2009; 3(2): 1108-25.
Brailsford SC, editor. System dynamics: what’s in it for health care simulation modelers. Simulation
Conference; 2008; UK. University of Southampton. doi: 10.1109/WSC.2008.4736227.
Morecroft J, Robinson S, editors. Comparing Discrete- Event Simulation and System Dynamics: Modeling
a Fishery. Operational Research Society Simulation; 2006; Birmingham, UK. doi:
1002/9781118762745.
Mutingi M. System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios. Manag Sci
Letters. 2012; 2: 2689-98. doi: 10.5267/j.msl.2012.09.027.
O'Brien-Pallas L, Birch S, Baumann A, Murphy GT. Integrating workforce planning, human resources and
service planning. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO, Department of organization of health services delivery;
Available from: www.who.int/hrh/documents/en/Integrating_workforce.pdf
Park S, Lee SM, Yoon SN, Yeon S. A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security
industry. Indust Manag Data Systems. 2008; 108(3): 368-84. doi: 10.1108/02635570810858778.
Solutions. DCfH. The future of our health professional workforce: the care for a comprehensive national
strategy: Bipartisan Policy Center; 2013.
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 KNOWLEDGE KINGDOM PUBLISHING
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.